Tekstilshchik 3–2 Baltika: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

9/29/2021

First League · Round 14Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik25%

×Draw26%

Baltika49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.48

Tekstilshchik

0.97

Baltika

1.48

Baltika creates 53% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 109 away

0.94

creates per match

1.34

1.61

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

0.94

Baltika

1.34

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.61

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

51%

Tekstilshchik or Baltika

74%

Draw or Baltika

75%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

9%

Baltika wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

62%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

25%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

7%

Baltika 1+ goals

77%

Baltika 2+ goals

43%

Baltika 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

34%

Baltika (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Baltika attack 1.34 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

25%

level

26%

Baltika scores more

49%

Baltika at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff