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Baltika vs Tekstilshchik — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
CANC
00:00
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
4/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Baltika56%
×Draw26%
Tekstilshchik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.50
Tekstilshchik
0.72

Baltika creates 108% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 53 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Tekstilshchik
0.68

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Tekstilshchik
1.72

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
82%
Baltika or Tekstilshchik
74%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
44%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
29%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
78%
Baltika 2+ goals
44%
Baltika 3+ goals
19%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
51%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
16%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
76%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tekstilshchik attack 0.68 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baltika scores more
56%
level
26%
Tekstilshchik scores more
18%

Baltika at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Baltika host Tekstilshchik

April 4, 2020: Baltika take on Tekstilshchik in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.