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Tekstilshchik vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
CANC
22:00
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
5/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tekstilshchik34%
×Draw27%
Avangard Kursk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.16
Avangard Kursk
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Avangard Kursk
1.38

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
61%
Tekstilshchik or Avangard Kursk
73%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
66%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
14%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
69%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
32%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
11%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
72%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
36%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
46%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
34%
level
27%
Avangard Kursk scores more
39%

Avangard Kursk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tekstilshchik host Avangard Kursk

May 5, 2020: Tekstilshchik take on Avangard Kursk in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.