Avangard Kursk 1–1 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tekstilshchik

E. Mukhin 9'

A. Evseev 90+5'

9/8/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 8Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk40%

×Draw28%

Tekstilshchik32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.07

Avangard Kursk

1.22

Tekstilshchik

1.07

Avangard Kursk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.22

creates per match

1.26

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.22

Tekstilshchik

1.26

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

0.89

Tekstilshchik

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

68%

Avangard Kursk or Tekstilshchik

72%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

60%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

17%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

70%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

34%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

12%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

66%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

29%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

55%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.22 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tekstilshchik attack 1.26 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

40%

level

28%

Tekstilshchik scores more

32%

Avangard Kursk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

33'

43'

45'

46'

A. Skvortsov← N. Chistyakov

51'

A. Evseev

58'

A. Ageev

58'

A. Ageev

67'

E. Nabatov← D. Malykhin

67'

A. Samsonov← M. Polyakov

70'

R. Yamlikhanov

75'

A. Skvortsov

82'

D. Knyazev← E. Mukhin

82'

R. Izotov← D. Savin

82'

D. Pavlov← V. Ignatenko

87'

M. Noskov← M. Ivakhnov

90+6'

D. Kirakosyan← S. Chibisov

90+5'

A. Evseev

Avangard

Tekstilshchik

93

Solovyev

96

Likhachev

33

▼

Polyakov

12

▼

91

4

9

94

⚽

Evseev

17

Kozlovski

7

Selemenev

56

▼

1

22

71

14

63

7

▼

Ignatenko

8

▼

Malykhin

3

▼

Chibisov

78

⚽

▼

Mukhin

76

Ageev

10

▼

Savin

Manager: I. Belyaev

67'▲E. Nabatov←▼D. Malykhin

82'▲D. Knyazev←▼E. Mukhin

82'▲R. Izotov←▼D. Savin

82'▲D. Pavlov←▼V. Ignatenko

90+6'▲D. Kirakosyan←▼S. Chibisov

Avangard Kursk substitutes

77Nabatov31Knyazev79Izotov90Pavlov73Kirakosyan16Eshchenko25Nekrasov57Konshin69Bykov

Manager: D. Kirichenko

46'▲A. Skvortsov←▼N. Chistyakov

67'▲A. Samsonov←▼M. Polyakov

87'▲M. Noskov←▼M. Ivakhnov

Tekstilshchik substitutes

92Skvortsov8Samsonov19Noskov11Razborov15Barkhanov16Bobrov51Ryabinkin66Samylin71Matsigura98Fenin

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Avangard Kursk 1–1 Tekstilshchik

Avangard Kursk and Tekstilshchik drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 8, 2024.

Goals: E. Mukhin (9'), A. Evseev (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.

Avangard Kursk vs Tekstilshchik — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Avangard Kursk 1–1 Tekstilshchik