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Tekstilshchik vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
3/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tekstilshchik23%
×Draw26%
Alaniya II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
0.92
Alaniya II
1.50

Alaniya II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
49%
Tekstilshchik or Alaniya II
74%
Draw or Alaniya II
77%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
8%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
60%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
23%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
7%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
78%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
44%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
31%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
23%
level
26%
Alaniya II scores more
51%

Alaniya II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Alaniya II

Alaniya II beat Tekstilshchik 2-0 in First League on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.