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Alaniya II vs Tekstilshchik — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
9/27/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II63%
×Draw21%
Tekstilshchik16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.94
Tekstilshchik
0.85

Alaniya II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Tekstilshchik
0.70

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.74

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
84%
Alaniya II or Tekstilshchik
79%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
37%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
38%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
86%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
58%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
30%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
57%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
21%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
80%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.74 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tekstilshchik attack 0.70 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alaniya II scores more
63%
level
21%
Tekstilshchik scores more
16%

Alaniya II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alaniya II 3–1 Tekstilshchik

Alaniya II beat Tekstilshchik 3-1 in First League on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.