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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
5 – 1
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
4/20/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci66%
×Draw19%
Stari Grad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.16
Stari Grad
0.91

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 137% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
85%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Stari Grad
81%
Draw or Stari Grad
34%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
42%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
88%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
63%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
36%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
60%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
23%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
82%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.16

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
66%
level
19%
Stari Grad scores more
15%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Stari Grad

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Stari Grad 5-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.