Stari Grad 3–4 Tekstilac Odžaci: Result & Stats

Stari Grad

FT

3 – 4

Tekstilac Odžaci

10/2/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Stari Grad35%

×Draw24%

Tekstilac Odžaci41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stari GradExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Odžaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.64

Stari Grad

1.49

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.64

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.74

creates per match

1.90

1.38

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stari Grad

1.74

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.90

allows per match

Stari Grad

1.38

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw

59%

Stari Grad or Tekstilac Odžaci

76%

Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci

65%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+

16%

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals

77%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

44%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

19%

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

81%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

49%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

46%

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stari Grad scores more

35%

level

24%

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

41%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff