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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Stanišić — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 0
Stanišić
Stanišić
10/22/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci79%
×Draw14%
Stanišić7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.62
Stanišić
0.65

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 303% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
Stanišić
0.57

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Stanišić
2.86

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Stanišić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
93%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Stanišić
86%
Draw or Stanišić
21%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
57%
Stanišić wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
93%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
73%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
48%
Stanišić 1+ goals
48%
Stanišić 2+ goals
14%
Stanišić 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
92%
Stanišić (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.62

Stanišić attack 0.57 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
79%
level
14%
Stanišić scores more
7%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Stanišić

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Stanišić 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.