Stanišić 1–5 Tekstilac Odžaci: Result & Stats

Stanišić

FT

1 – 5

Tekstilac Odžaci

5/14/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić20%

×Draw22%

Tekstilac Odžaci58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StanišićExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Odžaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.92

Stanišić

1.02

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.92

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

0.80

creates per match

1.90

1.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stanišić

0.80

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.90

allows per match

Stanišić

1.93

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw

42%

Stanišić or Tekstilac Odžaci

78%

Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci

80%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+

7%

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals

64%

Stanišić 2+ goals

27%

Stanišić 3+ goals

8%

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

85%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

57%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)

25%

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stanišić scores more

20%

level

22%

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

58%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff