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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
8/12/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci54%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Uzice21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.56
Sloboda Uzice
0.86

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 81% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
79%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Sloboda Uzice
74%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
46%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
28%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
79%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
46%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
21%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
58%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
21%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
72%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
54%
level
26%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
21%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Sloboda Uzice

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Sloboda Uzice 3-1 in Prva Liga on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.