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Sloboda Uzice vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Prva Liga 2018

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
11/18/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 17Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sloboda Uzice36%
×Draw32%
Tekstilac Odžaci32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.04
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.84

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.97

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
68%
Sloboda Uzice or Tekstilac Odžaci
68%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
64%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
14%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
63%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
26%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
8%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
60%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
23%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
53%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.84 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
36%
level
32%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
32%

Sloboda Uzice at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Uzice vs Tekstilac Odžaci

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Sloboda Uzice 2-0 in Prva Liga on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.