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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
1 – 1
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
3/5/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci58%
×Draw22%
Radnički Sombor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.92
Radnički Sombor
1.01

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 90% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
2.37
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.73
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
80%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Radnički Sombor
78%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
42%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
34%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
85%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
57%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
30%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
64%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
27%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
75%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 2.37 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
58%
level
22%
Radnički Sombor scores more
20%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Radnički Sombor

Tekstilac Odžaci and Radnički Sombor drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.