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Radnički Sombor vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
0 – 2
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
8/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Radnički Sombor44%
×Draw24%
Tekstilac Odžaci32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.70
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.42

Radnički Sombor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 29 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.90

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.24

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
68%
Radnički Sombor or Tekstilac Odžaci
76%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
56%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
23%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
82%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
51%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
24%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
76%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
41%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
58%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.90 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
44%
level
24%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
32%

Radnički Sombor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Sombor vs Tekstilac Odžaci

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Radnički Sombor 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.