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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
12/11/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci57%
×Draw24%
Radnički Novi Beograd20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.75
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.93

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 88% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
80%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Radnički Novi Beograd
76%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
43%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
32%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
83%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
52%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
61%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
24%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
74%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
57%
level
24%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
20%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs Radnički Novi Beograd

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Radnički Novi Beograd 5-0 in Prva Liga on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.