Radnički Novi Beograd vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Prva Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Radnički Novi Beograd33%
Tekstilac Odžaci36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 36 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Radnički Novi Beograd ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches
Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97
Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.84 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Tekstilac Odžaci at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Radnički Novi Beograd substitutes
Head to Head
Zemun
Macva
FK Vozdovac
Dinamo Jug
Loznica
Semendrija 1924
Borac Cacak
GrafičarTekstilac Odžaci
OFK Vršac
Jedinstvo Ub
Kabel Novi Sad
FAP
Dubočica
FK Trayal
Stepojevac VagaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Radnički Novi Beograd host Tekstilac Odžaci on Sunday, 3 September 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the Prva Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Radnički Novi Beograd vs Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci beat Radnički Novi Beograd 3-1 in Prva Liga on September 3, 2023.
Goals: I. Davidović (32'), N. Đokić (77' pen), I. Zulfić (90', 90+7' pen).
The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.