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Tekstilac Odžaci vs OFK Beograd — Super Liga 2026

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
11/29/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci29%
×Draw26%
OFK Beograd45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.15
OFK Beograd
1.50

OFK Beograd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
0.89
OFK Beograd
1.41

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.58
OFK Beograd
1.41

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
55%
Tekstilac Odžaci or OFK Beograd
74%
Draw or OFK Beograd
71%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
12%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
68%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
32%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
11%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
78%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
44%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
39%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.89 + OFK Beograd defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

OFK Beograd attack 1.41 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
29%
level
26%
OFK Beograd scores more
45%

OFK Beograd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Odžaci vs OFK Beograd

Tekstilac Odžaci beat OFK Beograd 2-0 in Super Liga on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.