Tekstilac Odžaci 1–2 OFK Beograd: Result & Stats

Tekstilac Odžaci

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

OFK Beograd

4/27/2024

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci40%

×Draw26%

OFK Beograd34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac OdžaciExpected goals in this matchOFK Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.40

OFK Beograd

1.27

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 10% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

1.54

creates per match

1.45

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.54

OFK Beograd

1.45

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci

1.10

OFK Beograd

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

OFK Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw

66%

Tekstilac Odžaci or OFK Beograd

74%

Draw or OFK Beograd

60%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+

19%

OFK Beograd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals

75%

Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals

41%

Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals

17%

OFK Beograd 1+ goals

72%

OFK Beograd 2+ goals

36%

OFK Beograd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)

54%

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more

40%

level

26%

OFK Beograd scores more

34%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff