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Tekstilac Odžaci vs Indjija — Prva Liga 2018

Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Indjija
Indjija
3/17/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 25Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tekstilac Odžaci42%
×Draw27%
Indjija31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Indjija
1.10

Tekstilac Odžaci creates 21% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 92 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.54
Indjija
1.09

allows per match

Tekstilac Odžaci
1.10
Indjija
1.13

finishing

Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par
Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Odžaci ↓

Indjija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Odžaci or draw
69%
Tekstilac Odžaci or Indjija
73%
Draw or Indjija
58%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
19%
Indjija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
74%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
38%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
15%
Indjija 1+ goals
67%
Indjija 2+ goals
30%
Indjija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
58%
Indjija (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Odžaci at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Indjija away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 1.54 + Indjija defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Indjija attack 1.09 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
42%
level
27%
Indjija scores more
31%

Tekstilac Odžaci at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tekstilac Odžaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Tekstilac Odžaci 2–1 Indjija

Tekstilac Odžaci beat Indjija 2-1 in Prva Liga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivo Lola Ribar in Odžaci.