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Indjija vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
10/1/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 10Toyo Tires Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Indjija44%
×Draw29%
Tekstilac Odžaci26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.23
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.88

Indjija creates 40% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 37 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.84

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.97

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
74%
Indjija or Tekstilac Odžaci
71%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
56%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
20%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
71%
Indjija 2+ goals
35%
Indjija 3+ goals
13%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
59%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
22%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
63%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.84 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Indjija scores more
44%
level
29%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
26%

Indjija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Indjija 1–0 Tekstilac Odžaci

Indjija beat Tekstilac Odžaci 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Toyo Tires Arena in Inđija.