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Tekstilac Derventa vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
9/10/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 7Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa42%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Novi Grad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.30
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.06

Tekstilac Derventa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 65 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
70%
Tekstilac Derventa or Sloboda Novi Grad
72%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
58%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
19%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
73%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
37%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
14%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
65%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
29%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
58%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
42%
level
28%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
30%

Tekstilac Derventa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Tekstilac Derventa 1–1 Sloboda Novi Grad

Tekstilac Derventa and Sloboda Novi Grad drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.