Sloboda Novi Grad 3–0 Tekstilac Derventa

Sloboda Novi Grad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tekstilac Derventa

4/23/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 24Stadion Mlakve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Sloboda Novi Grad61%

×Draw25%

Tekstilac Derventa14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi GradExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Derventa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.62

Sloboda Novi Grad

1.59

Tekstilac Derventa

0.62

Sloboda Novi Grad creates 156% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 53 away

1.55

creates per match

0.64

0.60

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

1.55

Tekstilac Derventa

0.64

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

0.60

Tekstilac Derventa

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Grad ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Grad or draw

86%

Sloboda Novi Grad or Tekstilac Derventa

75%

Draw or Tekstilac Derventa

39%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+

33%

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals

80%

Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals

47%

Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals

21%

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

46%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

13%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)

81%

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Grad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.60 · 67 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.55 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sloboda Novi Grad scores more

61%

level

25%

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

14%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff