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Tekstilac Derventa vs Rudar Prijedor — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
0 – 2
Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
8/17/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa35%
×Draw30%
Rudar Prijedor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
Rudar Prijedor
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Rudar Prijedor
1.03

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Rudar Prijedor
0.81

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Rudar Prijedor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
66%
Tekstilac Derventa or Rudar Prijedor
70%
Draw or Rudar Prijedor
65%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
14%
Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
65%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
28%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
9%
Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
64%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
27%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
51%
Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
35%
level
30%
Rudar Prijedor scores more
34%

Tekstilac Derventa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Derventa vs Rudar Prijedor

Rudar Prijedor beat Tekstilac Derventa 2-0 in 1st League - RS on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.