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Rudar Prijedor vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
3/25/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rudar Prijedor66%
×Draw21%
Tekstilac Derventa12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Prijedor
1.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.66

Rudar Prijedor creates 183% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor
2.10
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor
0.67
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw
88%
Rudar Prijedor or Tekstilac Derventa
79%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
34%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
40%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
85%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
56%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
29%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
48%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
14%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
84%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.67 · 73 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.10 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more
66%
level
21%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
12%

Rudar Prijedor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Rudar Prijedor 1–1 Tekstilac Derventa

Rudar Prijedor and Tekstilac Derventa drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Prijedor.