Tekstilac Derventa 1–2 Radnik Bijeljina

Tekstilac Derventa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Radnik Bijeljina

11/5/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 16Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa39%

×Draw29%

Radnik Bijeljina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac DerventaExpected goals in this matchRadnik Bijeljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Tekstilac Derventa

1.19

Radnik Bijeljina

1.06

Tekstilac Derventa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

1.09

1.02

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.26

Radnik Bijeljina

1.09

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.02

Radnik Bijeljina

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw

68%

Tekstilac Derventa or Radnik Bijeljina

71%

Draw or Radnik Bijeljina

61%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

17%

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

70%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

33%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

12%

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

65%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

29%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

55%

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

39%

level

29%

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

32%

Tekstilac Derventa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff