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Radnik Bijeljina vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
FT
1 – 1
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
5/27/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 33Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina70%
×Draw20%
Tekstilac Derventa10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Bijeljina
1.91
Tekstilac Derventa
0.54

Radnik Bijeljina creates 254% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina
2.18
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina
0.44
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw
90%
Radnik Bijeljina or Tekstilac Derventa
80%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
30%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
44%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
85%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
57%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
30%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
42%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
10%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
88%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.44 · 34 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 2.18 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.91

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more
70%
level
20%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
10%

Radnik Bijeljina at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Radnik Bijeljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Bijeljina vs Tekstilac Derventa

Radnik Bijeljina and Tekstilac Derventa drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijeljina.