Tekstilac Derventa 3–1 Podrinje Janja

Tekstilac Derventa

FT

3 – 1

Podrinje Janja

11/20/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa59%

×Draw23%

Podrinje Janja18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac DerventaExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Tekstilac Derventa

1.83

Podrinje Janja

0.91

Tekstilac Derventa creates 101% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 54 away

1.26

creates per match

0.80

1.02

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.26

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.02

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw

82%

Tekstilac Derventa or Podrinje Janja

77%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

41%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

34%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

84%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

54%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

28%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

60%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

23%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

76%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.83

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

59%

level

23%

Podrinje Janja scores more

18%

Tekstilac Derventa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff