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Podrinje Janja vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
9/3/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 6Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja44%
×Draw28%
Tekstilac Derventa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
1.28
Tekstilac Derventa
0.94

Podrinje Janja creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
73%
Podrinje Janja or Tekstilac Derventa
72%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
56%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
20%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
72%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
37%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
14%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
61%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
24%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
62%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
44%
level
28%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
27%

Podrinje Janja at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podrinje Janja vs Tekstilac Derventa

Podrinje Janja beat Tekstilac Derventa 2-0 in 1st League - RS on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.