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Tekstilac Derventa vs Famos Vojkovići — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
5/20/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa54%
×Draw25%
Famos Vojkovići21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.60
Famos Vojkovići
0.88

Tekstilac Derventa creates 82% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Famos Vojkovići
0.73

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Famos Vojkovići
1.94

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Famos Vojkovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
79%
Tekstilac Derventa or Famos Vojkovići
75%
Draw or Famos Vojkovići
46%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
29%
Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
80%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
47%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
22%
Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
59%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
22%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
72%
Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
54%
level
25%
Famos Vojkovići scores more
21%

Tekstilac Derventa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Derventa vs Famos Vojkovići

Tekstilac Derventa and Famos Vojkovići drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.