Famos Vojkovići 1–2 Tekstilac Derventa

Famos Vojkovići

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tekstilac Derventa

10/29/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion FK Famos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Famos Vojkovići61%

×Draw24%

Tekstilac Derventa15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Famos VojkovićiExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Derventa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.70

Famos Vojkovići

1.67

Tekstilac Derventa

0.70

Famos Vojkovići creates 139% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 53 away

1.71

creates per match

0.64

0.76

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Famos Vojkovići

1.71

Tekstilac Derventa

0.64

allows per match

Famos Vojkovići

0.76

Tekstilac Derventa

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famos Vojkovići ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Famos Vojkovići or draw

85%

Famos Vojkovići or Tekstilac Derventa

76%

Draw or Tekstilac Derventa

39%

Winning margin

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+

34%

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals

81%

Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals

50%

Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals

23%

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

50%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

16%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)

80%

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famos Vojkovići at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famos Vojkovići attack 1.71 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Famos Vojkovići defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Famos Vojkovići scores more

61%

level

24%

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

15%

Famos Vojkovići at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Famos Vojkovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff