Tekstilac Derventa 1–0 Budućnost Pilica

Tekstilac Derventa

FT

1 – 0

Budućnost Pilica

9/4/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 4Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa76%

×Draw16%

Budućnost Pilica9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tekstilac DerventaExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Pilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.71

Tekstilac Derventa

2.46

Budućnost Pilica

0.71

Tekstilac Derventa creates 246% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

0.40

1.02

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.26

Budućnost Pilica

0.40

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa

1.02

Budućnost Pilica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Budućnost Pilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw

91%

Tekstilac Derventa or Budućnost Pilica

84%

Draw or Budućnost Pilica

24%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

53%

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

91%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

70%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

44%

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

51%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

16%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

89%

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

76%

level

16%

Budućnost Pilica scores more

9%

Tekstilac Derventa at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff