Budućnost Pilica 0–1 Tekstilac Derventa

Budućnost Pilica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tekstilac Derventa

3/26/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 19Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica31%

×Draw25%

Tekstilac Derventa44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PilicaExpected goals in this matchTekstilac Derventa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.56

Budućnost Pilica

1.25

Tekstilac Derventa

1.56

Tekstilac Derventa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

0.87

creates per match

0.64

2.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica

0.87

Tekstilac Derventa

0.64

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica

2.47

Tekstilac Derventa

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw

56%

Budućnost Pilica or Tekstilac Derventa

75%

Draw or Tekstilac Derventa

69%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

13%

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

71%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

36%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

13%

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals

79%

Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals

46%

Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

41%

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more

31%

level

25%

Tekstilac Derventa scores more

44%

Tekstilac Derventa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff