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Tekstilac Derventa vs Borac Kozarska Dubica — 1st League - RS 2019

Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
FT
0 – 1
Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
8/21/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 2Stadion FK Tekstilac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilac Derventa59%
×Draw23%
Borac Kozarska Dubica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilac Derventa
1.80
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.89

Tekstilac Derventa creates 102% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.26
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.75

allows per match

Tekstilac Derventa
1.02
Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.34

finishing

Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par
Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilac Derventa ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilac Derventa or draw
82%
Tekstilac Derventa or Borac Kozarska Dubica
77%
Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica
41%

Winning margin

Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
34%
Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
83%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
54%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
27%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
59%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
22%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
76%
Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilac Derventa at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilac Derventa attack 1.26 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.80

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tekstilac Derventa scores more
59%
level
23%
Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
18%

Tekstilac Derventa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tekstilac Derventa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilac Derventa vs Borac Kozarska Dubica

Borac Kozarska Dubica beat Tekstilac Derventa 1-0 in 1st League - RS on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tekstilac in Derventa.