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Borac Kozarska Dubica vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
FT
0 – 3
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
11/14/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica48%
×Draw27%
Tekstilac Derventa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.44
Tekstilac Derventa
0.97

Borac Kozarska Dubica creates 48% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 53 away

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.23
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica
1.30
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw
75%
Borac Kozarska Dubica or Tekstilac Derventa
73%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
52%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
24%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
76%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
42%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
18%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
62%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
25%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
65%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
48%
level
27%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
25%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Borac Kozarska Dubica 0–3 Tekstilac Derventa

Tekstilac Derventa beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 3-0 in 1st League - RS on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Đolovi in Kozarska Dubica.