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Tedeón vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón42%
×Draw26%
Peña Balsamaiso32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.40
Peña Balsamaiso
1.19

Tedeón creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
68%
Tedeón or Peña Balsamaiso
74%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
58%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
20%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
75%
Tedeón 2+ goals
41%
Tedeón 3+ goals
17%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
70%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
33%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
57%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tedeón scores more
42%
level
26%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
32%

Tedeón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tedeón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Tedeón 1–3 Peña Balsamaiso

Peña Balsamaiso beat Tedeón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.