Peña Balsamaiso 0–1 Tedeón: Result & Stats

Peña Balsamaiso

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tedeón

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso51%

×Draw23%

Tedeón25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña BalsamaisoExpected goals in this matchTedeón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.18

Peña Balsamaiso

1.78

Tedeón

1.18

Peña Balsamaiso creates 51% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

1.32

creates per match

0.78

1.58

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.32

Tedeón

0.78

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.58

Tedeón

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Tedeón →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw

75%

Peña Balsamaiso or Tedeón

77%

Draw or Tedeón

49%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

28%

Tedeón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

83%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

53%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

26%

Tedeón 1+ goals

69%

Tedeón 2+ goals

33%

Tedeón 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

67%

Tedeón (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

51%

level

23%

Tedeón scores more

25%

Peña Balsamaiso at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peña Balsamaiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff