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Tedeón vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Tedeón
Tedeón
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arnedo
Arnedo
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tedeón26%
×Draw26%
Arnedo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tedeón
1.04
Arnedo
1.52

Arnedo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 95 away

creates per match

Tedeón
0.88
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Tedeón
1.41
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Tedeón+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tedeón ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tedeón or draw
52%
Tedeón or Arnedo
74%
Draw or Arnedo
74%

Winning margin

Tedeón wins by 2+
10%
Arnedo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tedeón 1+ goals
65%
Tedeón 2+ goals
28%
Tedeón 3+ goals
9%
Arnedo 1+ goals
78%
Arnedo 2+ goals
45%
Arnedo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tedeón (draw refunded)
35%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tedeón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tedeón attack 0.88 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Tedeón defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tedeón scores more
26%
level
26%
Arnedo scores more
48%

Arnedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Tedeón 0–0 Arnedo

Tedeón and Arnedo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Navarrete.