Arnedo 4–0 Tedeón: Result & Stats

Arnedo

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tedeón

Sergio Santolaya 81'

Miguel Angel 47'

Iván Moreno 39'

Guillermo Amelivia 20'

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arnedo67%

×Draw20%

Tedeón13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnedoExpected goals in this matchTedeón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.80

Arnedo

2.08

Tedeón

0.80

Arnedo creates 160% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 49 away

1.92

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Arnedo

1.92

Tedeón

0.78

allows per match

Arnedo

0.81

Tedeón

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par

Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Tedeón →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw

87%

Arnedo or Tedeón

80%

Draw or Tedeón

33%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+

42%

Tedeón wins by 2+

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals

87%

Arnedo 2+ goals

61%

Arnedo 3+ goals

34%

Tedeón 1+ goals

55%

Tedeón 2+ goals

19%

Tedeón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)

83%

Tedeón (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Arnedo scores more

67%

level

20%

Tedeón scores more

13%

Arnedo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Guillermo Amelivia

39'

Iván Moreno

46'

Sergio Argaiz← Iván Moreno

46'

Esneider← Manuel Villegas

46'

Rodrigo Balda← Juan Martínez

47'

Miguel Angel

50'

Guillermo Gázquez← David Gonzalez

56'

Z. Suzuki← Sergio González

61'

Asry← Miguel Angel

61'

Iván Pascual← Guillermo Amelivia

61'

Juan Garcia← Jorge Montoya

75'

Raúl Dávila← Victor Jimeno

81'

Sergio Santolaya

Arnedo

Tedeón

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Angel

González

Corbacho

⚽

▼

Amelivia

Clavijo

Sevilla

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Arpón

46'▲Sergio Argaiz←▼Iván Moreno

50'▲Guillermo Gázquez←▼David Gonzalez

61'▲Asry←▼Miguel Angel

61'▲Iván Pascual←▼Guillermo Amelivia

Arnedo substitutes

ArgaizGázquezAsryPascual

Manager: David Hernández

46'▲Esneider←▼Manuel Villegas

46'▲Rodrigo Balda←▼Juan Martínez

56'▲Z. Suzuki←▼Sergio González

61'▲Juan Garcia←▼Jorge Montoya

75'▲Raúl Dávila←▼Victor Jimeno

Tedeón substitutes

EsneiderBaldaSuzukiGarciaDávila

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 4–0 Tedeón

Arnedo beat Tedeón 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 25, 2024.

Goals: Guillermo Amelivia (20'), Iván Moreno (39'), Miguel Angel (47'), Sergio Santolaya (81').

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.

Arnedo vs Tedeón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 4–0 Tedeón