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Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
4/6/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 7Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Tecnico Universitario47%
×Draw26%
Mushuc Runa SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.53
Mushuc Runa SC
1.09

Tecnico Universitario creates 40% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 117 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
73%
Tecnico Universitario or Mushuc Runa SC
74%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
53%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
24%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
78%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
45%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
20%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
66%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
30%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
64%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
47%
level
26%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
27%

Tecnico Universitario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC

Tecnico Universitario and Mushuc Runa SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.