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Mushuc Runa SC vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
4/18/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 9Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC46%
×Draw27%
Tecnico Universitario28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.42
Tecnico Universitario
1.04

Mushuc Runa SC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 129 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
72%
Mushuc Runa SC or Tecnico Universitario
73%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
54%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
22%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
76%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
41%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
17%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
65%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
28%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
62%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
46%
level
27%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
28%

Mushuc Runa SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario

Mushuc Runa SC beat Tecnico Universitario 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa in Ambato.