Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC

Tecnico Universitario

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

L. Estupiñán 22'

5/27/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 12Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tecnico Universitario45%

×Draw27%

Mushuc Runa SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.03

Tecnico Universitario

1.40

Mushuc Runa SC

1.03

Tecnico Universitario creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.51

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Mushuc Runa SC

0.85

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.21

Mushuc Runa SC

1.28

-0.01on par

finishing

+1.15scores more than expected

finishing

Tecnico Universitario-0.01on par

Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

72%

Tecnico Universitario or Mushuc Runa SC

73%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

55%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

22%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

75%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

41%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

17%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

64%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

28%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

62%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.51 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

45%

level

27%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

28%

Tecnico Universitario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Chávez

Tecnico Universitario · G

7.5

Match Events

22'

L. Estupiñán↳ J. Caicedo

34'

Juan Jimenez

46'

W. Ocles← M. Carrasco

59'

W. Ayoví← J. Estacio

63'

S. Tapiero← J. Jiménez

66'

Wilman Pabón

69'

E. Rodríguez← J. Caicedo

72'

J. Pinos← S. González

77'

R. Zambrano← J. Monaga

77'

C. Velez← B. Téliz

78'

Juan Nazareno

81'

Alexander Bolaños

82'

M. Medranda← C. Arboleda

82'

C. Cuero← L. Estupiñán

82'

D. Camacho← O. Mejía

90+8'

Edison Carcelen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TecnicoMushuc

Overview

31%Possession69%

8Total Shots12

3Corners5

18Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target3

3Off Target3

1Blocked6

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

31%Possession69%

224Total Passes489

140Accurate Passes403

63%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2