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Tecnico Universitario vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
5/11/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 12Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Tecnico Universitario32%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.20
Independiente del Valle
1.40

Independiente del Valle creates 17% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 134 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
58%
Tecnico Universitario or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
68%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
13%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
70%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
34%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
12%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
75%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
41%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
44%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
32%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
42%

Independiente del Valle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Tecnico Universitario 2-1 in Liga Pro on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.