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Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
8/25/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Independiente del Valle56%
×Draw25%
Tecnico Universitario19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.59
Tecnico Universitario
0.82

Independiente del Valle creates 94% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 129 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.78
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.78
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
81%
Independiente del Valle or Tecnico Universitario
75%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
44%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
30%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
80%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
47%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
21%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
56%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
20%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
74%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
56%
level
25%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
19%

Independiente del Valle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Tecnico Universitario

Independiente del Valle beat Tecnico Universitario 1-0 in Liga Pro on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.