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Tecnico Universitario vs Imbabura — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Imbabura
Imbabura
5/7/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tecnico Universitario53%
×Draw23%
Imbabura24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.78
Imbabura
1.11

Tecnico Universitario creates 60% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Imbabura
1.00

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Imbabura
2.33

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Imbabura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
76%
Tecnico Universitario or Imbabura
77%
Draw or Imbabura
47%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
29%
Imbabura wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
83%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
53%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
26%
Imbabura 1+ goals
67%
Imbabura 2+ goals
30%
Imbabura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
69%
Imbabura (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Imbabura attack 1.00 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
53%
level
23%
Imbabura scores more
24%

Tecnico Universitario at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs Imbabura

Tecnico Universitario and Imbabura drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.