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Imbabura vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
10/28/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura38%
×Draw26%
Tecnico Universitario35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.34
Tecnico Universitario
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 128 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
Tecnico Universitario
1.41

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
65%
Imbabura or Tecnico Universitario
74%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
62%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
17%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
74%
Imbabura 2+ goals
39%
Imbabura 3+ goals
15%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
72%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
36%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
52%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.41 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.87 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Imbabura scores more
38%
level
26%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
35%

Imbabura at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Tecnico Universitario

Tecnico Universitario beat Imbabura 6-0 in Liga Pro on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.