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Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
4/18/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Tecnico Universitario44%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.36
Deportivo Cuenca
1.04

Tecnico Universitario creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Deportivo Cuenca
0.86

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
71%
Tecnico Universitario or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
56%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
74%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
39%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.86 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
44%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
29%

Tecnico Universitario at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca

Tecnico Universitario beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.