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Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
5/17/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 13Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca48%
×Draw26%
Tecnico Universitario26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.47
Tecnico Universitario
1.00

Deportivo Cuenca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.53
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.13
Tecnico Universitario
1.41

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
74%
Deportivo Cuenca or Tecnico Universitario
74%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
24%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
18%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
63%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
26%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
65%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.41 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.53 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.87 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
48%
level
26%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
26%

Deportivo Cuenca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario

Deportivo Cuenca beat Tecnico Universitario 2-0 in Liga Pro on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar in Cuenca.