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Tecnico Universitario vs Cuniburo — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cuniburo
Cuniburo
11/9/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Relegation Group - 4Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tecnico Universitario46%
×Draw26%
Cuniburo28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.48
Cuniburo
1.11

Tecnico Universitario creates 33% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Cuniburo
1.00

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Cuniburo
1.72

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Cuniburo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Cuniburo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
72%
Tecnico Universitario or Cuniburo
74%
Draw or Cuniburo
54%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
23%
Cuniburo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
43%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
19%
Cuniburo 1+ goals
67%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
30%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
62%
Cuniburo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Cuniburo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Cuniburo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cuniburo attack 1.00 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
46%
level
26%
Cuniburo scores more
28%

Tecnico Universitario at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Cuniburo

Tecnico Universitario and Cuniburo drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.