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Cuniburo vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
10/26/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Relegation Group - 2Estadio Olimpico Guillermo Albornoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuniburo44%
×Draw28%
Tecnico Universitario28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.31
Tecnico Universitario
0.99

Cuniburo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 128 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.22
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.11
Tecnico Universitario
1.41

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
72%
Cuniburo or Tecnico Universitario
72%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
56%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
20%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
73%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
38%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
14%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
63%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
26%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
61%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.41 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.22 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.87 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cuniburo scores more
44%
level
28%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
28%

Cuniburo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuniburo vs Tecnico Universitario

Tecnico Universitario beat Cuniburo 2-1 in Liga Pro on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Guillermo Albornoz in Quito.