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Tecnico Universitario vs Cumbayá — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cumbayá
Cumbayá
8/6/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tecnico Universitario51%
×Draw25%
Cumbayá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.57
Cumbayá
0.97

Tecnico Universitario creates 62% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Cumbayá
0.71

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Cumbayá
1.91

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Cumbayá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
77%
Tecnico Universitario or Cumbayá
75%
Draw or Cumbayá
49%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
27%
Cumbayá wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
79%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
46%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
21%
Cumbayá 1+ goals
62%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
25%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
69%
Cumbayá (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.23 + Cumbayá defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cumbayá attack 0.71 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
51%
level
25%
Cumbayá scores more
23%

Tecnico Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tecnico Universitario vs Cumbayá

Tecnico Universitario and Cumbayá drew 3-3 in Liga Pro on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.